On Vague Computers

Vagueness is something everyone is familiar with. In fact, most people think that vagueness is closely related to language and exists only there. However, vagueness is a property of the physical world. Quantum computers harness superposition and entanglement to perform their computational tasks. Both superposition and entanglement are vague processes. Thus quantum computers, which process exact data without "exploiting" vagueness, are actually vague computers

A Cognitive Model of an Epistemic Community: Mapping the Dynamics of Shallow Lake Ecosystems

We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to develop a generic shallow lake ecosystem model by augmenting the individual cognitive maps drawn by 8 scientists working in the area of shallow lake ecology. We calculated graph theoretical indices of the individual cognitive maps and the collective cognitive map produced by augmentation. The graph theoretical indices revealed internal cycles showing non-linear dynamics in the shallow lake ecosystem. The ecological processes were organized democratically without a top-down hierarchical structure. The steady state condition of the generic model was a characteristic turbid shallow lake ecosystem since there were no dynamic environmental changes that could cause shifts between a turbid and a clearwater state, and the generic model indicated that only a dynamic disturbance regime could maintain the clearwater state. The model developed herein captured the empirical behavior of shallow lakes, and contained the basic model of the Alternative Stable States Theory. In addition, our model expanded the basic model by quantifying the relative effects of connections and by extending it. In our expanded model we ran 4 simulations: harvesting submerged plants, nutrient reduction, fish removal without nutrient reduction, and biomanipulation. Only biomanipulation, which included fish removal and nutrient reduction, had the potential to shift the turbid state into clearwater state. The structure and relationships in the generic model as well as the outcomes of the management simulations were supported by actual field studies in shallow lake ecosystems. Thus, fuzzy cognitive mapping methodology enabled us to understand the complex structure of shallow lake ecosystems as a whole and obtain a valid generic model based on tacit knowledge of experts in the field.Comment: 24 pages, 5 Figure

Medical concepts related to individual risk are better explained with "plausibility" rather than "probability"

BACKGROUND: The concept of risk has pervaded medical literature in the last decades and has become a familiar topic, and the concept of probability, linked to binary logic approach, is commonly applied in epidemiology and clinical medicine. The application of probability theory to groups of individuals is quite straightforward but can pose communication challenges at individual level. Few articles by the way have tried to focus the concept of "risk" at the individual subject level rather than at population level. DISCUSSION: The author has reviewed the conceptual framework which has led to the use of probability theory in the medical field in a time when the principal causes of death were represented by acute disease often of infective origin. In the present scenario, in which chronic degenerative disease dominate and there are smooth transitions between health and disease the use of fuzzy logic rather than binary logic would be more appropriate. The use of fuzzy logic in which more than two possible truth-value assignments are allowed overcomes the trap of probability theory when dealing with uncertain outcomes, thereby making the meaning of a certain prognostic statement easier to understand by the patient. SUMMARY: At individual subject level the recourse to the term plausibility, related to fuzzy logic, would help the physician to communicate to the patient more efficiently in comparison with the term probability, related to binary logic. This would represent an evident advantage for the transfer of medical evidences to individual subjects

Memories of childhood in post-war Grimsby

This paper details the vivid memories of the author’s childhood in the fishing port of Grimsby, shortly after the Second World War. It was a time of shortages, overcrowding, improvisation and cannibalisation of anything that could be re-used. In time it became a period of reconstruction but not without its upheavals and difficulties. It begins in the ‘old town’ of workers’ small terrace houses, typically in a poor state of repair. Then it moves to the ‘new’ council estates. Similarly, the narrative also begins with a ‘Victorian’ technology of steam, coal and horses with very few petrol-engined vehicles and moves to the very beginnings of early consumer society. The principal analytic content of the paper concerns the status of what is clearly a ‘personal history’ – if that is not too great a contradiction – or as the author suggests: my story. The obvious ‘critical’ response – that it could have been otherwise – is contrasted against the suggestion that this story is a non-negotiable foundation of the author’s identity and that this ‘critical’ response is not appropriate. Some of the interdisciplinary options thrown up by this problem are considered

Models and metaphors: complexity theory and through-life management in the built environment

Complexity thinking may have both modelling and metaphorical applications in the through-life management of the built environment. These two distinct approaches are examined and compared. In the first instance, some of the sources of complexity in the design, construction and maintenance of the built environment are identified. The metaphorical use of complexity in management thinking and its application in the built environment are briefly examined. This is followed by an exploration of modelling techniques relevant to built environment concerns. Non-linear and complex mathematical techniques such as fuzzy logic, cellular automata and attractors, may be applicable to their analysis. Existing software tools are identified and examples of successful built environment applications of complexity modelling are given. Some issues that arise include the definition of phenomena in a mathematically usable way, the functionality of available software and the possibility of going beyond representational modelling. Further questions arising from the application of complexity thinking are discussed, including the possibilities for confusion that arise from the use of metaphor. The metaphor of a 'commentary machine' is suggested as a possible way forward and it is suggested that an appropriate linguistic analysis can in certain situations reduce perceived complexity

Fuzzy Inference Systems for Invariant Pattern Recognition in MFL NDE

Defect related information present in NDE signals is frequently obscured by the presence of operational variables inherent in the system. A typical NDE system comprises of an energy source, a test specimen and a sensor array. Operational variables include uncontrollable changes in source signal strength and/or frequency, variations in the sensitivity of the sensor and alterations in the material properties of the test specimen. These operational variables can confuse subsequent signal interpretation schemes, such as those relying on artificial neural networks. Invariant pattern recognition methods are required to ensure accurate signal characterization in terms of the underlying defect geometry. This paper describes a generalized invariance transformation technique to compensate for operational variables in NDE systems. An application to magnetic flux leakage (MFL) inspection of gas transmission pipelines is presented. The technique is employed to compensate for variations in magnetization characteristics in the pipe wall

Modelling Hot Spots of Soil Loss by Wind Erosion (SoLoWind) in Western Saxony, Germany

Land Degradation and Development published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. While it needs yet to be assessed whether or not wind erosion in Western Saxony is a major point of concern regarding land degradation and fertility, it has already been recognized that considerable off-site effects of wind erosion in the adjacent regions of Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg are connected to the spread of herbicides, pesticides and dust. So far, no wind erosion assessment for Western Saxony, Germany, exists. The wind erosion model previously applied for Germany (DIN standard 19706) is considering neither changes in wind direction over time nor influences of field size. This study aims to provide a first assessment of wind erosion for Western Saxony by extending the existing DIN model to a multidirectional model on soil loss by wind (SoLoWind) with new controlling factors (changing wind directions, soil cover, mean field length and mean protection zone) combined by fuzzy logic. SoLoWind is used for a local off-site effect evaluation in combination with high-resolution wind speed and wind direction data at a section of the highway A72. The model attributes 3·6% of the arable fields in Western Saxony to the very-high-wind erosion risk class. A relationship between larger fields (greater than 116 ha) and higher proportions (51·7%) of very-high-wind erosion risk can be observed. Sections of the highway A72 might be under high risk according to the modelled off-site effects of wind erosion. The presented applications showed the potential of SoLoWind to support and consult management for protection measures on a regional scale. © 2016 The Authors. Land Degradation and Development published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.The authors would like to thank Jürgen Heinrich and Gudrun Mayer for the technical revision of the model conception and the German Weather Service, the Saxon State Office for the Environment, Agriculture and Geology, the Saxon State Office for Road Construction and Traffic, the Saxon State Ministry of the Environment and Agriculture, the Saxon State Spatial Data and Land Survey Corporation, the Saxon Road Maintenance Depots, OpenStreetMap and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for providing the datasets. We would also like to thank three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Formalized Conceptual Spaces with a Geometric Representation of Correlations

The highly influential framework of conceptual spaces provides a geometric way of representing knowledge. Instances are represented by points in a similarity space and concepts are represented by convex regions in this space. After pointing out a problem with the convexity requirement, we propose a formalization of conceptual spaces based on fuzzy star-shaped sets. Our formalization uses a parametric definition of concepts and extends the original framework by adding means to represent correlations between different domains in a geometric way. Moreover, we define various operations for our formalization, both for creating new concepts from old ones and for measuring relations between concepts. We present an illustrative toy-example and sketch a research project on concept formation that is based on both our formalization and its implementation.Comment: Published in the edited volume "Conceptual Spaces: Elaborations and Applications". arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1706.06366, arXiv:1707.02292, arXiv:1707.0516

Big data-driven fuzzy cognitive map for prioritising IT service procurement in the public sector

YesThe prevalence of big data is starting to spread across the public and private sectors however, an impediment to its widespread adoption orientates around a lack of appropriate big data analytics (BDA) and resulting skills to exploit the full potential of big data availability. In this paper, we propose a novel BDA to contribute towards this void, using a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach that will enhance decision-making thus prioritising IT service procurement in the public sector. This is achieved through the development of decision models that capture the strengths of both data analytics and the established intuitive qualitative approach. By taking advantages of both data analytics and FCM, the proposed approach captures the strength of data-driven decision-making and intuitive model-driven decision modelling. This approach is then validated through a decision-making case regarding IT service procurement in public sector, which is the fundamental step of IT infrastructure supply for publics in a regional government in the Russia federation. The analysis result for the given decision-making problem is then evaluated by decision makers and e-government expertise to confirm the applicability of the proposed BDA. In doing so, demonstrating the value of this approach in contributing towards robust public decision-making regarding IT service procurement.EU FP7 project Policy Compass (Project No. 612133